Oakville, Connecticut 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

928
FXUS61 KALY 081940
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
340 PM EDT Tue Apr 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Behind a strong cold front, cold and windy conditions
are expected through this evening with some passing snow showers and
flurries.  Dry weather will return on Wednesday, but it will remain
chilly. Although it will still fairly cool, temperatures will start
to moderate late in the week with another storm system impacting the
region for late Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Key Message:

- Wind Advisory in effect through 10 PM for Mohawk & Schoharie
  Valleys, Helderbergs, Capital Region, Taconics and Berkshires
  due to expected wind gusts up to 50 mph.

As of 340 PM EDT...A large upper level trough is in place over
the Northeast and it will continue to slide eastward through the
overnight hours tonight. Visible satellite imagery shows plenty
of clouds are still in place over the area. Some breaks are
occurring from time to time, mainly in valley areas, but much of
the region is fairly cloudy thanks to the stratocu in place. As
the trough heads eastward and drier air works into the area,
some more breaks in the clouds cover are expected as the night
progresses.

Scattered to numerous snow showers are occurring, mainly for
northern, western and high terrain areas thanks to a combination
of the cyclonic flow, upslope flow and lake enhancement. Much
of this activity is fairly light and brief in duration, but
there may be occasional snow showers and flurries through the
evening hours, especially for western areas. CAMs suggest the
threat for snow showers should be decreasing as the trough heads
eastward for tonight. Some lingering lake effect snow showers
may impact the western Mohawk Valley into the overnight, but
most places will be done with the snow showers and flurries by 8
or 9 PM. While most areas will see little snow accumulation
through this evening, some high terrain areas (mainly over the
Adirondacks or southern VT) could see an inch or so.

The combination of good mixing and a strong pressure gradient
will keep gusty winds through the late evening hours. The
highest gusts will be in the 30 to 50 mph range, especially
within the Mohawk Valley, Capital Region and Berkshires. Some
gusts in the 30-45 mph have already occurred and the strongest
winds will likely occur from now through about 5 or 6 PM, but
it will be still windy right into the late evening as well. A
few downed trees or limbs are expected, so Wind Advisory remains
in effect and some power outages are possible.

With the decreasing wind and more breaks in the cloud cover,
temps will be falling for the overnight lows. Lows will
generally be in the 20s, although some teens are possible across
the high terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be located over the mid Atlantic States and
it will be passing offshore to our southeast for Wednesday
night. Although temps aloft will be very cold to start on
Wednesday (850 hpa temps around -12 to -15 C), it will be
steadily warming aloft for Wednesday into Wednesday night. With
the high pressure area south of the region, there still will be
enough gradient for a northwesterly breeze on Wednesday, but it
won`t be as windy as Tuesday. Skies should be fairly sunny on
Wednesday with plenty of dry air in place. Still, temps won`t be
very warm due to the chilly temps aloft and highs will only be
in the mid 30s to mid 40s. With the fairly clear skies and light
winds in place, temp will be cold again on Wednesday night with
20s across the area.

Clouds will be increasing for late Wed night into Thursday
morning as the next system starts to approach from the west, as
a low pressure area moves across the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley. Although we will keep low POPs for as early as Thursday
morning, the most likely scenario is for precip to build into
the area for Thursday afternoon and evening and continue into
Thursday night. The best forcing will remain southwest of the
area, but enough isentropic lift should lead to a period of
light precip for late Thursday into Thursday night. Most of this
precip should be rain, although some high terrain areas of the
Catskills and Adirondacks could see some wet snow, with perhaps
a few inches at the highest terrain. Total QPF for Thursday into
Thursday night will generally be under a third of an inch for
most areas. With the clouds and precip, temps will be in the 40s
for valley areas on Thursday, with high terrain areas in the
30s. Overnight on Thursday night will see most areas fall into
the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Message:

- Unsettled weather for Friday into Saturday. NBM probabilities
  for greater than 1.00" of precipitation are in the 20-50%
  range south and east of the Capital District for the 48-hr
  period until 8 am Sunday.

Discussion:

The large upper level trough over the Ohio Valley on Friday will
dive towards the mid Atlantic States allowing another surface
low to form near the coast and slowly drift northward. This
should allow for a period of steady precip to build back into
the area from the south for late Friday afternoon into Friday
night and for much of Saturday. Will go with highs POPs in the
likely to categorical range during this time.

With cooling temps aloft and steady precip allowing for some
wet-bulbing, precip may switch from rain to snow across much of
the high terrain and perhaps even into some valley areas during
this time period. There remains a lot of uncertainty regarding
p-type and amounts during this time, but some snow, even for
valley areas, cannot be ruled out.Latest 12z GEFS shows about a
20% chance for p-type being snow in Albany. NBM probabilities
for QPF shows a good shot for at least a half inch, but the
probability of amounts over an inch are only in the 20%-50%
range for areas south and east of the Capital Region, with lower
probabilities to the north. Temps look to be held down due to
the clouds and precip, with most areas staying in the 30s and
40s for Friday into Saturday.

With less chance for precip, temps should moderate for Sunday
into early next week. It looks mainly dry for Sunday and Monday,
with perhaps some passing showers for Monday night into
Tuesday. Daytime temps look to reach into the 50s for valley areas
on Sunday and probably 60s for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18z Wednesday...VFR conditions prevail across all terminals
this afternoon with some light snow showers scattered around the
region in the wake of a cold front that passed through earlier this
morning. VFR conditions should prevail throughout the duration of
the 18z TAF period almost everywhere, though some MVFR ceilings are
possible at KPSF later this afternoon into this evening briefly.
While some snow showers have crossed into the radius of a few of the
terminals this afternoon, visibilities and ceilings have generally
not been impacted due to their light nature and relatively dry low-
level conditions. So, while a few showers may cross into the
vicinity of KALB and KPSF this afternoon, categories should not
change. The biggest impact to operations will be gusty, northwest
winds throughout much of the period. Sustained speeds will continue
to range from around 15-25 kt with gusts around 20-35 kt. Speeds
should generally decrease overnight tonight into tomorrow morning,
but it will remain breezy with sustained gusts ranging from around
10 to 15 kt with some gusts up to 20-25 kt.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN.
Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NYZ038>040-
     047>054-061.
MA...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for MAZ001-025.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Gant