Oakville, Connecticut 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

023
FXUS61 KALY 070525
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
125 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Additional showers and thunderstorms will be capable of
producing heavy downpours Saturday morning into early afternoon.
A drier and less humid weather is anticipated for Sunday with
comfortable conditions. More showers and thunderstorms are
expected for much of next week with seasonable temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Key Messages:

 -Additional moderate to heavy rain expected Saturday into early
  afternoon morning. Flood watch extended through 3 PM Saturday.

Discussion:
.Update...As of 1:25 AM EDT...Generally quiet across the region
at this time, as earlier showers have mostly come to an end.
Frontal boundary and weak remnant sfc low circulation remain off
to our west, across northern PA and the Southern Tier into
Central NY. Here, more showers are beginning to develop. This
boundary will be the focus for additional shower/thunderstorm
development late tonight/around daybreak, but for now we have
adjusted PoPs down through the next few hours to reflect current
dry conditions. Otherwise, mainly mild and muggy tonight. Calm
winds and some breaks in the clouds have allowed for some patchy
dense fog to develop, especially where heavy rain fell
yesterday. Aside from adjustments to PoPs, mostly just minor
changes to align with current trends. Previous forecast remains
on track with more details below...

.Previous...Additional showers and some thunderstorms with
heavy rainfall are expected to track northeast into our area
late tonight into Saturday morning associated with the next wave
of low pressure currently located over north-central PA. Moist
environment still in place, and it will not take much for
renewed flooding in some areas, so we extended the Flood Watch
into Saturday afternoon. Main concern will be for areas that
received heavy rainfall today that get more convection.

There should be break in the precip for most of the overnight
hours - maybe until 5am, although it will remain mild and muggy
with the front just west of the area. Skies will remain partly
to mostly cloudy tonight with patchy dense fog developing, with
lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Another round of precip is
expected for Saturday morning as the next wave on the boundary
moves eastward.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As a shortwave trough moves across southern Canada, the surface
boundary will begin making eastward progress once again on
Saturday. Another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms
are expected Saturday, mainly for early in the day, as the
front heads across the area from west to east. There could
continue to be some heavy downpours early on Saturday and some
additional flooding can`t be ruled out, especially for spots
that saw heavy rainfall on Friday. WPC has a marginal risk for
excessive rainfall for eastern parts of the area. Temps will
only be in the 70s on Saturday with a mostly cloudy sky,
although some clearing is expected for later in the day behind
the departing front.

In the wake of the boundary, less humid air will pour in the
region for Saturday night into Sunday. Dewpoints will drop back
into the 50s. Sunday will be the best day on the weekend
(weather-wise) with a partly sunny sky and dry conditions. Temps
will be comfortable in the 70s as well. Some clouds may start to
increase by Sunday afternoon with some light showers possible
Sunday night, mainly for southwestern areas and lows in the
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday through
Wednesday as a slow moving upper level low moves from the Great
Lakes across the Northeast. It appears Tuesday may have the
greatest coverage of precip thanks to the moist southerly flow
ahead of the approaching upper low. Some thunderstorms and heavy
downpours may be possible once again and WPC already has the
area in a Marginal Outlook for Excessive Rainfall for Day 5
(Tuesday). Upper level heights begin to rise Thursday and
ridging continues into Friday and this should bring mainly fair
weather with some warming. Otherwise, it will be fairly
seasonable for early June with temps in the 70s to low 80s and
lows in the 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Steady rain has ended at all TAF sites. Clouds will break this
evening. Clearing will allow some radiational cooling and this
coupled with light winds can support fog/mist/low stratus
resulting in IFR cigs/vis. With a frontal boundary stalled
overhead, additional rain looks to redevelop along the front
early tomorrow morning mainly around the Catskills and increase
in coverage as the rain spreads north/eastward through the
morning. Continuing MVFR vis/ceilings are possible as the rain
becomes more widespread during the morning. Highest confidence
for rain and MVFR flying at ALB, PSF and POU. GFL may remain
north/west of the steady rain. Improving conditions from
northwest to southeast on Saturday afternoon. Winds generally
light and variable switching to northerly later Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flood Watch through this afternoon for CTZ001-013.
NY...Flood Watch through this afternoon for NYZ047>054-058>061-
     063>066.
MA...Flood Watch through this afternoon for MAZ001-025.
VT...Flood Watch through this afternoon for VTZ013>015.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND/Main/JPV
SHORT TERM...SND/Frugis
LONG TERM...SND/Frugis
AVIATION...KL